\u201c2022 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekonomi De\u011ferlendirme ve 2023 Beklentileri\u201d Toplant\u0131s\u0131 EG\u0130AD Dernek Merkezinde Ya\u015far \u00dcniversitesi \u0130\u015fletme Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Umut Hala\u00e7\u2019\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Verilere dayanarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131da, D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2022\u2019yi u\u011furlarken ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebildi\u011fi hedefleri ve gelecek y\u0131lda nas\u0131l bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik de\u011ferlendirmeler ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Katma De\u011ferli \u00dcretime Y\u00f6nlenmeli<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015f insanlar\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llarda belirsizlikten kaynaklanan tedirginlik ve kayg\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirtildi\u011fi etkinlikte, d\u0131\u015f ticaretin ara mal ithalat\u0131 ve ara mal ihracat\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fi i\u00e7in ticaretin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015femedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Katma de\u011ferli \u00fcretimin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131. D\u0131\u015f Ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 91 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Umut Hala\u00e7, \u201c\u0130thalat i\u00e7in t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131n\u0131n oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8 olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011fil fakat ara mal al\u0131p satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f ticaretten ne yaz\u0131k ki olumlu sonu\u00e7 alam\u0131yoruz. Sadece bu h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u00f6neminde de\u011fil \u00f6nceki h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u00f6nemlerinde de ayn\u0131 hata yap\u0131lmaktayd\u0131.\u201d dedi. Rekabet\u00e7i d\u00f6viz kuru mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde ilerlemek istendi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatan Hala\u00e7, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda biraz daha de\u011fersiz tutup D\u0131\u015f Ticarette d\u00f6viz kuru avantaj\u0131n\u0131n kazan\u0131lmak istendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekerek, \u201cBu durumda D\u0131\u015f Ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledik. Ama azalmad\u0131. Niye azalmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, T\u00fcrkiye olarak ara mal\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Ara mal\u0131 sat\u0131yoruz. Rekabet\u00e7i d\u00f6viz kuru mant\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu sistem bize art\u0131 getirmiyor. 1980\u2019lerden beri s\u00fcregelen bu mant\u0131k ve sistemle T\u00fcrkiye debelenmeye devam ediyor. Ara mal\u0131 alan \u00fclke ile ara mal\u0131 satan \u00fclke konumundan \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Ocak- Ekim ay\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 33 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k vermi\u015fiz, bu y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 91 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k olu\u015fmu\u015f. A\u00e7\u0131lan bu ara makas da bize g\u00f6steriyor ki Rekabet\u00e7i d\u00f6viz kuru mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

E\u011fitimli \u0130\u015fsizler Ordusu Yarat\u0131ld\u0131<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelli hareketlenmenin mutlaka istihdama da yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Do\u00e7. Dr. Umut Hala\u00e7, bu \u015fekilde istihdamdaki dokunun da de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini vurgulayarak, \u201c\u015eu anda y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131nda bir i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z var. Bu konuda alt\u0131 \u00e7izilmesi gereken nokta, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 kadar i\u015fsizlik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Burada ilgin\u00e7 bir nokta var. Son y\u0131llarda i\u015fsizlik dokusunun de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Bu \u00fclkede okur yazar de\u011filseniz ve i\u015f ar\u0131yorsan\u0131z bir \u00fcniversite mezununa g\u00f6re i\u015fsiz kalma ihtimaliniz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu \u015funu g\u00f6steriyor demek ki biz \u00fcretimde y\u00fcksek e\u011fitimli insanlara daha az ihtiya\u00e7 duymaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Bu \u00fclke \u00fcretimini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak lise alt\u0131 e\u011fitimliler ve lise e\u011fitimlileri \u00fczerine kurmu\u015f durumda. Bu da g\u00f6steriyor ki \u00fcretim dokumuzda y\u00fcksek e\u011fitimli insanlara \u00f6ncelik vermiyoruz. Bu da yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na beyin g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc beraberinde getiriyor. Katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretecek insanlar\u0131n daha az istihdam edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi y\u00fcksek olmayan erkeklerin daha \u00e7ok istihdam edildi\u011fini de s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Bizim \u00fclkemizdeki istihdam yap\u0131s\u0131 \u201caz e\u011fitimli erkeklere” daha fazla istihdam imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki Dalgalanma \u0130stikrars\u0131zl\u0131k Yarat\u0131yor<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 da irdeleyen Hala\u00e7, bu alanda da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir dalgalanma sebebiyle kimsenin uzun vadeli planlama yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na vurgu yaparak, \u201c\u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k veriler incelendi\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131nda baz\u0131 y\u0131llarda y\u00fczde 16\u2019l\u0131k dalgalanmalar oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Y\u00fczde 22.25\u2019lik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sonras\u0131nda 7.89 luk bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. Bunu nas\u0131l stabilize edersiniz? \u00d6rne\u011fin 7.5 gibi her seferinde bu oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcme olsa planlama yapabilirsiniz. Ama 22.25 gibi m\u00fckemmel bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden sonra 7.8, 9.6, 7.52, 7.73, 3.85 olarak devam ediyor. Bu dalgalanmalar ekonomik istikrar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131nda biz bu y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.5-6 aras\u0131nda bir yerde noktalayaca\u011f\u0131z. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te benzer bir \u015fekilde dalgal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c2022 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekonomi De\u011ferlendirme ve 2023 Beklentileri\u201d Toplant\u0131s\u0131 EG\u0130AD Dernek Merkezinde Ya\u015far \u00dcniversitesi \u0130\u015fletme Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Umut Hala\u00e7\u2019\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Verilere dayanarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131da, D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12029,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,163,173],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guncel-haberler","category-toplantilar","category-webinar-ve-bilgilendirme-toplantilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egiad.org.tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}